Inflation, stagflation, recession? What will shape Asia’s economic and investment outlook for the second half of 2022
Wei Yao, Chief Economist and Head of Research, Asia Pacific and Frank Benzimra, Head of Asia Equity Strategy, recently shared their views on the economic and investment outlook for the second half of 2022.
In their latest reports, they covered a range of key topics including inflation, the risk of recession in the global economy and latest monetary policies, portfolio strategies as well as Chinese equities and bonds. Key takeaways include:
• Ease on headline inflation in large advanced economies over the next six months: But with upstream price pressures still strong and growing signs that wages are following them up, decline will likely be slow and only partial.
• Recession will likely come but not too soon and would be dependent on three risk factors: Additional exogenous inflation shocks, China economic lockdowns and a serious financial market plunge.
• The most significant change in our economists' forecasts over the past three months has been to the monetary policy outlook, with several rate hikes expected this year until a clear downward trend in inflation emerges.
• External risks including the dollar, US financial conditions and recession-create dispersion between China and the rest of emerging markets in Asia will likely last in the third quarter.
• Going forward, high inflation and accelerated monetary policy tightening are likely to weigh on growth prospects. Reducing portfolio risk remains the key theme in the current market environment.
Click the below to read our latest research:
Global Economic Outlook Report – Central Banks and the Wild Goose Chase
Multi Asset Portfolio Report - From stagflation concerns to credit worries: steer clear of risk
Our award-winning Cross Asset Research team offers multi-asset coverage through an array of publications and analytical tools, to help our clients understand market trends, and provide them with asset allocation and multi-asset portfolio strategies, as well as facilitating their smart investment.
Stay up to date with the latest insights on SG Markets.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: This website and its contents are for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument. SG Research is for institutional and professional clients only. Visitors to this site should not take any investment decision based on the summary material provided here, which should be read in the context of the underlying research report made available to subscribers.
Unless otherwise stated, any views or opinions expressed in the presentation are solely those of the presenter(s) and may differ from the views and opinions of others at, or other departments or divisions of, Societe Generale (“SG”) and its affiliates. No part of the presenter(s) compensation was, is or will be related, directly or indirectly to the specific views expressed herein. This material is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument. The information contained herein has been obtained from, and is based upon, sources believed to be reliable, but SG and its affiliates make no representation as to its accuracy and completeness. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author of this material as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Neither the presenter(s) nor SG has any obligation to update, modify or otherwise notify the recipient in the event any information contained herein, including any opinion or view, changes or becomes inaccurate. To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein.
This presentation should not be construed as investment research as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Therefore, even if it contains a research recommendation, it should be treated as a marketing communication. This publication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Notwithstanding the preceding sentence SG is required to have policies in place to manage the conflicts which may arise in the production of its research, including preventing dealing ahead of investment research.