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The oil outlook has improved considerably over the last few months and much of the success in reducing the massive volatility and creating the stabilization of prices is down to OPEC+ being extremely effective in managing supply to balance the market.

Reports of an imminent, and highly effective, vaccine against COVID-19 point to much stronger commodity demand. Once there is more information available on the vaccine, the base forecasts will be reviewed.

In their 2020 Outlook report, our credit analysts warned that investors faced “A tale of two scenarios.”

The market consensus has turned overwhelmingly bullish recently, as a growth recovery plus ample liquidity presumably creates a rising tide that lifts all boats, including EM assets.

Emerging market central banks and fiscal authorities have delivered unprecedented amounts of policy stimulus this year, but scope for further policy accommodation may be dwindling.

Air pollution affects everyone and almost every living thing: children, adults and even babies in the womb.

With its European Green Deal, the EU has set itself the very ambitious goal of becoming the first climate neutral continent.

Following the economic collapse across the globe, as key regions went into COVID lockdown, the rebound after reopening was largely instantaneous.

The second COVID wave has further strengthened a high rate of savings accumulation and high portfolio cash levels now ready to be invested in the economic recovery, notably equities at a time of negative real yields in the developed world.

Markets will likely continue to be driven by three key themes until 1Q21: the pursuit of economic recovery via the strongest stimulus seen in decades, with fiscal policy taking the lead, a clear commitment by governments not to trigger early austerity, and a heavy monetisation of new sovereign and corporate issuance by central banks that will strongly distort...

OVERVIEW The global economy has just experienced one of the deepest recessions in history. After a horrendous first half of the year, positive news has started to emerge on the economic front.

It seems that in just a few months the European equity market interface has totally changed.

European citizens and equity investors will be happy to turn the page on 2020. Quite possibly we will be turning many pages in fact: that of COVID (we hope), the UK in Europe (we think), perhaps also the outperformance of defensives, the strong US dollar, falling bond yields, high dividend yields, carbon in portfolios etc.